Abstract

Vampire bat-transmitted rabies has recently become the leading cause of rabies mortality in both humans and livestock in Latin America. Evaluating risk of transmission from bats to other animal species has thus become a priority in the region. An integrated bat-rabies dynamic modeling framework quantifying spillover risk to cattle farms was developed. The model is spatially explicit and calibrated to the state of São Paulo, using real roost and cattle farm locations. The framework combines bat population dynamics, within-colony rabies transmission, and between-colony dispersal to estimate the probability and magnitude of spillover events to cattle. Results demonstrated that spillover risk is highly heterogeneous in space and time, driven by roost distribution, colony sizes, and local bat population dynamics. This modeling approach provides a quantitative tool for prioritizing surveillance and vaccination campaigns in high-risk areas, supporting rabies control programs in Latin America.