First highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in a commercial farm in Brazil: outbreak timeline, control actions, risk analysis, and transmission modeling

First highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in a commercial farm in Brazil: outbreak timeline, control actions, risk analysis, and transmission modeling

Cardenas, N.C., Lopes, Souza, P.A.S.C., Groff, F.H.S., Kowalski, A.P., Krein, A., Etges, de Azevedo, D.L., Machado, A., Maran, V., Machado, F.A., and Machado, Gustavo. 2025. Preprint — arXiv

Abstract

This preprint describes the first highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in a commercial poultry farm in Brazil. It covers the complete outbreak timeline, control actions deployed, risk factor analysis, and a transmission model to understand how HPAI spread within and between farms. The findings provide critical real-world data and modeling insights to support HPAI preparedness in South America and globally.