Abstract

A limited understanding of the transmission dynamics of swine disease is a significant obstacle to prevent and control disease spread. Therefore, understanding between-farm transmission dynamics is crucial to developing disease forecasting systems to predict outbreaks that would allow the swine industry to tailor control strategies. Our objective was to forecast weekly Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus outbreaks by generating maps to identify current and future PEDV high-risk areas, and simulating the impact of control measures. Three epidemiological transmission models (PigSpread, SimInf, and PoPS) were developed and compared. PoPS had an AUC of 0.80, followed by PigSpread with 0.71, and SimInf with 0.59. The combined strategies of herd closure, controlled exposure of gilts, and on-farm biosecurity reinforcement reduced the number of outbreaks by 76–89% in sow farms and 33–61% in gilt development units in high-risk areas.