Integrating epidemiological and economic models to estimate the cost of simulated foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Brazil
Abstract
abstract: “The introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) leads to substantial economic impacts through animal loss, decreased production, increased control spending, and trade restrictions. This study evaluates the direct cost-effectiveness of four control and eradication scenarios for hypothetical FMD outbreaks in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Using a multi-host SEIR model, the team evaluated scenarios including depopulation and emergency suppressive vaccination. Costs encompassed animal elimination, carcass disposal, lab testing, and sanitary barriers. Results predicted outbreak costs ranging from $977,128 to $52,275,811. Depopulation was the most expensive component. The study demonstrated that higher rates of depopulation, especially when combined with vaccination, were the most effective strategies to reduce long-term economic impacts despite higher initial costs. Allocating more resources early in the outbreak was found to be cost-effective for achieving faster eradication.”