Integrating epidemiological and economic models to estimate the cost of simulated foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Brazil

Paper Cover Image

Integrating epidemiological and economic models to estimate the cost of simulated foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Brazil

Nicolas C. Cardenas, Taís C. de Menezes, Amanda M. Countryman, Francisco P.N. Lopes, Fernando H.S. Groff, Grazziane M. Rigon, Marcelo Gocks, and Machado, Gustavo. 2025. Preventive Veterinary Medicine

Abstract

abstract: “The introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) leads to substantial economic impacts through animal loss, decreased production, increased control spending, and trade restrictions. This study evaluates the direct cost-effectiveness of four control and eradication scenarios for hypothetical FMD outbreaks in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Using a multi-host SEIR model, the team evaluated scenarios including depopulation and emergency suppressive vaccination. Costs encompassed animal elimination, carcass disposal, lab testing, and sanitary barriers. Results predicted outbreak costs ranging from $977,128 to $52,275,811. Depopulation was the most expensive component. The study demonstrated that higher rates of depopulation, especially when combined with vaccination, were the most effective strategies to reduce long-term economic impacts despite higher initial costs. Allocating more resources early in the outbreak was found to be cost-effective for achieving faster eradication.”

Updated: