Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) poses a significant threat to swine production, leading to substantial economic consequences for farmers and the food industry. The spread of the ASF virus across Europe highlights the need to identify transmission routes and assess their contributions to inform stakeholders about appropriate surveillance and control measures. A simulation model was developed to evaluate ASF spread within the commercial swine network in France. This model was built using raw movement data and actual farm characteristics, employing a metapopulation approach. The model considered transmission processes at the herd level that could lead to external spread to epidemiologically connected herds. Three main transmission routes were incorporated: local transmission (e.g., fomites, material exchange), movement of animals from infected to susceptible sites, and the transit of trucks without physical animal exchange. Surveillance was modeled through prevalence and mortality detection thresholds at the herd level, which, when triggered, initiated control measures such as movement bans for detected herds and epidemiologically linked herds. The time from infection to detection varied between 8 and 21 days, depending on the detection criteria and the types of herds where the infection was introduced.