MHASpread

A Stochastic Multiscale Model for Animal Disease Spread and Control

MHASpread is an R-based simulation framework for modeling foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and other multi-host pathogens across real-world livestock networks. It couples within-farm SEIR dynamics with spatial transmission kernels and animal-movement networks to evaluate outbreak responses under realistic uncertainty.

Explore the Model View Publications

Why MHASpread

Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks are economically devastating, politically sensitive, and epidemiologically complex. Effective control requires understanding how the disease moves through heterogeneous farm networks and how interventions ripple over time.

MHASpread helps answer questions that deterministic or single-species models cannot:

  • How does a single infected shipment cascade into regional outbreaks?
  • What is the marginal benefit of faster depopulation versus wider vaccination rings?
  • How does outbreak size vary across hundreds of stochastic replicates under identical conditions?
  • What is the cost-effectiveness of each control strategy under parameter uncertainty?

Key Capabilities

  • Multiscale disease dynamics with within-farm SEIR and between-farm spatial transmission.
  • Multi-host modeling for cattle, swine, and small ruminants with species-specific parameters.
  • Integrated control actions including depopulation, ring vaccination, movement standstill, and tracing.
  • Stochastic simulation with uncertainty in transmission, detection, and control effectiveness.
  • Economic integration for direct and indirect cost assessment.

Model at a Glance

Feature Description
Spatial scales Within-farm SEIR + metapopulation kernel (up to 40 km)
Host species Cattle, swine, small ruminants — each with species-specific parameters
Transmission Mass-action within farm; exponential kernel between farms; animal movement network
Control actions Depopulation, ring vaccination, movement standstill, contact tracing
Stochasticity Binomial transmission sampling; PERT-distributed parameters; hypergeometric detection
Economic layer Direct costs + indirect costs (market disruption)
Outputs Epidemic curves, farm-level attack maps, cost-effectiveness ratios

Selected Publications

  • Cardenas, N. C., Lopes, F. P. N., Machado, A., Maran, V., Trois, C., Machado, F. A., & Machado, G. (2024). Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures. Frontiers in Veterinary Science. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2024.1468864
  • Cardenas, N. C., et al. (2025). Integrating epidemiological and economic models to estimate the cost of simulated foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Brazil. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106558
  • Cardenas, N. C., et al. (2025). Foot-and-mouth disease in Bolivia: Simulation-based assessment of control strategies and vaccination requirements. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1155/tbed/9055612
Model Mathematical formulation: compartments, transmission kernels, stochastic simulation framework.
Methods Data requirements, economic integration, parameter uncertainty.
Vignettes Step-by-step conceptual tutorials from introduction to case studies.
Publications Peer-reviewed papers and supporting literature.
Events International training workshops and capacity-building initiatives.

Primary Citation

If you use MHASpread in your research, please cite:

Cardenas, N. C., Lopes, F. P. N., Machado, A., Maran, V., Trois, C., Machado, F. A., & Machado, G. (2024). Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 11, 1468864. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2024.1468864

Developers

Nicolas Cespedes Cardenas — Machado Lab, NC State University · ORCID
LUMAC Team — Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil

For questions: machado-lab.github.io