Disease transmission models

The RABapp™ team has developed state-of-the-art transmission models. These models are available within the Disease surveillance tab. The first two models enable the reconstruction of weekly outbreaks for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), while also providing short forecasts.

In addition to the PRRS transmission model, the third and arguably most critical model is a transmission model for African swine fever (ASF). Tracking the spread of this major infectious disease threat as soon as the first case is detected on U.S. soil is a prominent goal of the RABapp™ consortium. By leveraging the integration of comprehensive swine industry biosecurity and movement datasets within RABapp™, the main outcomes of this ASF model include:

1. Predictions of the initial disease spread and expected numbers of infected farms and pigs across the country.
2. Projected disease spread within different time frames after the initial outbreak is detected (e.g. weekly projections).
3. Identification of the transmission route that is most likely to cause the highest number of new cases (e.g. between-farm movement of pigs).

Learn more about our within-barn transmission model

Deka, A., Galvis, J.A., Fleming, C., Safari, M., Yeh., C. Machado, G.* Modeling the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within commercial swine barns: Quantifying the contribution of multiple transmission pathways.(arXiv)-(2024)

If you like to learn more about the peer-reviewed publications which support transmission models availaible in RABapp™

Publications